Week 1 of the NFL season is the biggest yarn spinner of the year. It fabricates fictions based on faulty sample sizes and feeds them to the masses as truth.
The narratives spawning this week aren't driven by malice. There is no evil deceit at play. There are simply too few snaps, too few reps, too few decisions to aid in determining future outcomes.
In a world of instant gratification and dopamine chasing, we want the future laid out plain. That's not how life works. It's not how the NFL works.
The games that unfolded thus far are but one of 17 each club will tackle, with ever-new obstacles sprouting each week.
Do the results in such a relatively short season matter? Undoubtedly. Are there lessons to glean? Absolutely. But we must season everything with two tablespoons of salt before ingesting. We can't get so caught up in the floodlights of one game that we lose the path to January.
Many of the narratives formed after 16 of 272 games are naturally of the negative variety. It's far easier to see the sky falling than to believe one game means a Lombardi is on the way. Some contain nuggets of reality. Others are blatant fibs.
With smoke-and-mirrors week in the rearview, let's take a look at some of the instant narratives and attempt to parse out which are early overreactions that will fade away and which could signal bad omens.
Lions are in trouble after ghastly loss: OVERREACTION
It was U-G-L-Y for Dan Campbell's crew. It's not just that they lost a road game to a division opponent. Detroit got smacked around, beaten up on both sides of the ball, treated like a piñata, and ripped apart.
The Lambeau Field beatdown was a culmination of every worry Lions fans had entering the year. The interior offensive line got bullied. Even with Micah Parsons not playing a full complement of snaps, the blocking was suspect. The offensive play calls were muted, unimpressive, predictable and lacked explosives. Jared Goff looked scatterbrained from all the pressure. The defense lacked punch up front, generating eight total QB pressures, including a team-high two from Aidan Hutchinson. The secondary got picked apart.
It was as dismal a performance as you could script for the back-to-back NFC North winners, starting a rugged 2025 schedule.
So, why is the narrative following the loss an overreaction and not a horrific omen?
In attempting to contextualize Week 1 losses, I went back and looked up every team that made the playoffs after suffering an opening-week defeat over the past decade. There have been 40 such instances. Most were close losses. Many to other future playoff teams. Some had rookie QBs just getting their feet wet before going on a run -- Commanders with Jayden Daniels, Texans with C.J. Stroud.
Within that data, however, a few stood out. Most notable: The 2021 Packers got pounded by the Saints, 38-3. You'll remember this as the game moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. New Orleans demolished Aaron Rodgers, who threw two picks. Mr. R-E-L-A-X turned things around from that infamous start, and the Packers claimed the No. 1 seed in the NFC. In fact, both No. 1 seeds in 2021 (Titans) got walloped in Week 1. It can happen.
History isn't a rerun, but it can be instructive. In this case, it can remind us that even as bad as Sunday looked for the Lions, that doesn't outweigh the positives they had entering the season. It's still an uber-talented roster with a head coach who has proven he can coax the most out of his players. The coordinators must be better. The players, particularly Goff, must display urgency. And the young guards must grow up in a hurry. But hitting the panic button after Week 1 with this roster is premature. We can re-evaluate in mid-October.
Ravens will continue to trip over themselves: OVERREACTION
I don't need to rehash most of the above section, but it applies similarly to John Harbaugh's club. This is too talented a team to worry about one loss derailing them -- the Ravens started 0-2 last season and still won the AFC North.
Losing a 15-point lead with under five minutes to go stings, and it could hurt the Ravens come January if they have to play in Buffalo again. But sometimes you must tip your cap to a generational talent like Josh Allen and plow ahead.
I know the choke artists narrative can be difficult to brush aside, though. Under Harbaugh, the Ravens have lost 17 games in which they held a 10-plus point lead in the second half (most of any head coach since 2000), per NFL Research. Of course, when you're around for 18 seasons, the bad (and good) moments can add up.
The issue is the recent collapses:
- Sunday night's loss.
- A 10-point boondoggle to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 last year.
- They blew a 15-point lead to Cleveland and a 10-point lead to Pittsburgh in 2023.
- In 2022, they blew a 21-point lead in a defensive breakdown against Miami and had a 17-point crash against the Bills.
They still made the postseason after all of those flops.
Given Harbaugh's comments following Sunday's fiasco, perhaps Week 1 could ultimately serve as a positive step toward avoiding such collapses -- particularly if they keep the ball in the hands of their MVP candidate late.
Bryce Young shows regression: BAD OMEN
The end of 2024 brought renewed belief to Carolina that the 2023 No. 1 overall pick might not be washed out to sea. Down the stretch, Young displayed the talent, anticipation, and headiness that coaxed the club to trade up for its franchise signal-caller.
The rational observer believed that another full offseason under Dave Canales' tutelage, with improved surroundings -- on paper -- would enable Young to take another leap forward. At least, he could go from the bottom rung to middle of the pack.
Yet, Young appeared lost once again in Sunday's loss to the Jaguars. He threw ill-advised passes into coverage. He was sped up unnecessarily at times. And he was off the mark far too often.
We can't even blame pressure for a discombobulated Young. According to Next Gen Stats, the Panthers did not allow pressure on 22 pass attempts (60%) against the Jags. On those plays, he completed 12 passes for 86 yards with an interception for a 44.9 passer rating, 3.9 yards per attempt, and a -15.8% completion percentage over expectation. Not great, Bob.
Carolina's QB1 has a young receiving corps -- Tetairoa McMillan looked good, at least -- and Young couldn't really work off of tape from last season because the Panthers were facing a defense in its first game under a new coaching staff. So, there is still hope he can turn things around. But you have to squint to see the positives after Sunday.
Last-place Chiefs are finally toast: OVERREACTION
Oh, the back-to-back-to-back AFC Champions are in last place in the AFC West! Call me if they're still there in six weeks. The week-by-week over-analyzation of Andy Reid's club is hitting Patriots dynasty-era levels of exhaustion. Look, they lost to a good division opponent in the opener. The Chiefs still had a chance late even though they lost their top receiver early in the game, lacked a consistent rushing attack and suffered busts on defense.
Any consternation about the continuously churning receiver room is a nonstarter for me. We've been doing this for four seasons. And all Patrick Mahomes does is make it work with a group of misfit toys. Rashee Rice will be back in October, we'll see about the extent of Xavier Worthy's injury, and there is always the trade market (Tyreek Hill?) if things keep breaking bad. I'm not fretting about an offense that put up points on its final five possessions in Brazil -- even if the red zone continues to be a yearly issue.
If there is a concern exiting last Friday's loss, it's the defensive holes. The Chiefs lacked a pocket pusher outside of Chris Jones, the young safety crew got exposed, and there is a lack of depth at corner next to Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Those issues are bigger concerns than the offense. However, I trust Steve Spagnuolo to figure it out more than any other DC in the NFL. He's earned that faith.
The Chiefs lived on the razor's edge last year. Perhaps they finally regress toward the mean this season, but they'll still stay ahead of the curve into the postseason.
Russell Wilson seems poised to be replaced sooner rather than later: BAD OMEN
It's a bad omen for Wilson. Perhaps not for Giants fans hoping for some excitement.
In his Big Blue debut, Wilson was scattershot, consistently lowering his eyes to the rush. He couldn't keep a rhythm and was woeful in the red zone. His 45.9 completion percentage was his worst in 53 career games with at least 35-plus pass attempts.
At this point, no one should be surprised. We have years of evidence that this is who he is. That Seattle Assassin no longer exists. This is who he was in Denver. It's how he looked last year in Pittsburgh. Oh, he'll have brief moments where 14 years of experience kicks in and he looks functional. Then the next moment, he'll stare right at the pass rush and miss an open receiver.
Sunday's six-point output wasn't all on Wilson, whose offensive line continues to block like matadors, and the Giants had zero run game, but he certainly didn't raise the level of play of those around him.
Despite what Tom Brady -- and sometimes Aaron Rodgers -- would have us believe, for most of NFL history, quarterbacks fall off a cliff with age. That Russ has still been able to convince coaching staffs he can do the job is impressive in itself.
It's clear that he's not long for the starting job, however. Brian Daboll's waffling after Week 1 said plenty. The Giants might have drafted Jaxson Dart with the intention of having him learn from the sideline. I expect any such plan to be scrapped soon. Maybe not in Week 2 against Dallas -- though that package of plays apparently ready for Dart will hopefully be dusted off. But it's coming in short order. Daboll has a job to save.
Steelers defense looked old: OVERREACTION
The most eye-popping part of the Steelers' Week 1 win wasn't Aaron Rodgers slinging four touchdowns at 41 years old. No, it was the Pittsburgh defense getting repeatedly gashed by Justin Fields and the New York Jets.
Perhaps in a few weeks, we'll view Jets OC Tanner Engstrand as the next up-and-comer, with Fields on a Pro Bowl track and Breece Hall set to get paid. For now, it's the Steelers' run defense that is the talking point. Mike Tomlin's club continues to struggle against dual-threat QBs.
The Steelers missed 10 tackles in Week 1, tied with the Rams for most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. It felt like more.
Pittsburgh made the Jets look like the Lamar Jackson Ravens, allowing 182 rushing yards, three ground scores and 394 total yards. New York scored 32 points, the most allowed by the Steelers to a non-divisional opponent since Week 8 of 2022.
For long stretches, the Pittsburgh defense looked like a unit employing a trove of 30-plus-year-olds still knocking off rust on a young season. The good news is that, for once, the offense picked them up, providing a mulligan. I don't expect the T.J. Watt-led crew to keep getting run over at the point of attack. And eventually, first-round rookie Derrick Harmon will return from injury.
Bears performance proves they got it wrong with Caleb Williams: OVERREACTION
Opinions turned in a jiffy in the Windy City. Following a flawless opening drive, Bears fans were ready to crown Williams and Ben Johnson the second coming of Michael Jordan and Phil Jackson. A couple of hours later, the second-year quarterback is under heat, and the new head coach has egg on his face.
Such is life in the NFL.
Williams absolutely deserves criticism for how he played in the final two quarters Monday night. He pressed. He missed throws. He got discombobulated in the pocket. Several of his passes led to audible "ewwwwws" from yours truly. The second half looked far too close to what we saw from him last year.
But can we pump the brakes on instantly trash-canning a player before he's even had a chance to evolve? For Pete's sake, the man can't even wear an undershirt without dividing the country.
Johnson and Williams deserve more than one game together before they're labeled the latest Bears failure. The first drive displayed the immense upside of the combo. The ending, the bottom of the barrel. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.
It takes more than one offseason, 42 preseason snaps and one NFL game for a play-caller and quarterback to jell. With Johnson trying to completely overhaul the offense, it was prejudicial to expect perfection in Week 1.
Yes, Williams has a lot to clean up. Yes, Johnson's game-management skills need work. And yes, collapsing in a game they dominated early was an utter disappointment. We can say all that without the think pieces about how the Bears made a grave mistake picking Williams first overall last year. Save those for when Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix are hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
The Dolphins look lost in Indianapolis: BAD OMEN
Getting blown out by a Daniel Jones-led Colts squad sunk Mike McDaniel's operation to a new low. The optics surrounding the Dolphins already felt poor after they shed some key veterans during an offseason reset. I don't know if anyone expected it to look as bad as it did on Sunday.
The offense was a disjointed mess. Tua Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times and looked like a newbie under center. The blocking was porous, but the QB did nothing but shrink behind it. Now in his sixth season, I'd have expected the veteran to find something he could do well mid-game. Instead, it was just dump-offs and panicked heaves.
Miami's defense got blasted, allowing Jones to lead scoring drives on all seven of his possessions. This was a guy who got run out of a starting job in New York, not Peyton Manning. We knew the Dolphins' secondary would have issues, but where was the pass rush? Hanging out at St. Elmo? The crew finished with eight QB pressures on the afternoon, via NGS, and their 24.2% QB pressure rate ranked 29th. Sure, the Colts were in an advantageous position where they could play-action Miami to death, but a front of Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson having virtually no effect on the game is depressing. Robinson finished with zero pressures on 14 pass rushes.
The Dolphins looked lifeless a quarter into the first game of the season. Worse: It's difficult to imagine them pulling themselves out of this mess.
Cam Ward desperately needs more help: BAD OMEN
If you only checked the box score from the Titans' loss to Denver, you would have thought the No. 1 overall pick had a forgettable opening game. If you watched, you know it was more about the surrounding help than the rookie signal-caller.
Ward showed off his strong arm and, more often than not, went to the correct place with the football. He showed playmaking upside. For a first game, it was a solid outing. It certainly was worlds better than Bo Nix's first game as a pro last season.
It wasn't all perfect. He took some unnecessary sacks and is still learning. However, there were several eye-popping throws from the QB on Sunday. When Ward sees it and rips it, it's a thing of beauty. He has the talent to succeed in the NFL.
Now, if he could just get some help.
Next Gen Stats credited the Titans with four drops, including three by Calvin Ridley. I think NGS is being kind. To the naked eye, it seemed like there were far more than four drops. Ridley was particularly disappointing. He's the player Tennessee needs to help the young QB.
Coach Brian Callahan put his rookie in precarious positions with his play-calling and whiffed on a chance to help his team by throwing the challenge flag. Week 1 was not a good look for the second-year coach, who could be facing a lot of heat in short order if the Titans don't take strides forward.
Ward owns the talent to change the franchise's fortunes. Whether he can start to make that happen in 2025 depends largely on the people around him. They didn't help the rookie nearly enough on Sunday.
