Draftniks, rookie obsessives, football fans, lend me your eyes ...
I come to serve a purpose, and that purpose is to rank the top 25 NFL rookies ... at an admittedly random point in their debut campaign. Yeah, we're at the quarter(ish) mark of the regular season, but it's still an arbitrary cutoff for Year 1 evaluation. And here's the funny thing about randomly timed rankings: They can be published on the morning after a Thursday Night Football tilt that saw three of the rankees commit fourth-quarter whoopsies on an island-game stage.
Tampa Bay newbies Tykee Smith, Graham Barton and Bucky Irving all had costly moments late in the Buccaneers' 36-30 overtime loss at Atlanta. And yet, THEY REMAIN RANKED! Why? Because one bad play doesn't make a bad rookie. Did their respective rankings suffer last-minute damage, given that we're operating with such a small sample size at this point? That's confidential information.
Enough preamble. Let's get to it.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 2 overall
Malik Nabers held the No. 1 spot for most of September, but then his former LSU quarterback snatched it away with a pair of transcendent performances. Shoutout to the Washington Post's Nicki Jhabvala for getting me to think in this manner, but over the past two games, Daniels has quarterbacked more than twice as many scoring drives (13) as he’s thrown incompletions (6). And 10 of those 13 marches hit paydirt. After some rough decades for this franchise, what a time to be a Commanders fan.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 6 overall
The wideout will miss his first game this Sunday after suffering a concussion late in Week 4, but he's more than made his mark, validating the rationale behind an unpopular opinion last spring. You see, back in the pre-draft process, analysts who rated Nabers above fellow receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. were typically viewed as hot-take artists. A month into the 2024 campaign, Nabers leads the league in targets (52) and catches (35), fully fueling the Giants’ offense as a dynamic DOG.
Now, lemme get one thing straight: This commentary isn’t meant to disparage Harrison, a pedigreed pass catcher who earned his own spot pretty high on this list, but rather to salute the draftniks who zagged when most others zigged. Obviously, it’s FAR too early to even think about crowning the take, but with the benefit of hindsight, we all now know it wasn’t hot. Big ups to my colleague Lance Zierlein, who had Nabers as the top prospect in the entire draft class.
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 51 overall
Boasting a rich tradition at the center position, the Steelers struggled over the past three seasons to fill the void left by the retirement of nine-time Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey. So Pittsburgh pounced on a pivot midway through Round 2 of April's draft, and the early returns suggest the C search is over. Don’t dwell on this past Sunday’s costly snap snafu -- Justin Fields took the blame, after all. Frazier looks like the kind of strong, savvy stalwart who drives jersey sales in the Steel City.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 19 overall
One of the more surprising developments in this young season: The Rams top the NFL in QB pressure rate (41.3% of dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats) in the season after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Verse leads the charge, with the third-highest individual pressure rate in football at 21.6 percent, just behind Myles Garrett and Will McDonald IV. The beastly edge has been a menace against the run, too. All in all, he was one of the league’s more disruptive defenders in September. The only thing holding him back on the stat sheet? An NFL-high 11(!) missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus. For someone who lines up on the defensive front, that number is wild -- so wild, in fact, that I have to believe there’s some randomness involved. So count me among those who think Verse’s tackling will regress toward the mean.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 22 overall
Starting across from 12th-year veteran and six-time Pro Bowler Darius Slay, Mitchell has been targeted frequently. But the rookie out of Toledo has held his own, showcasing the ability to defend receivers of all sizes, speeds and play styles. Whether striding with speed merchants like Christian Watson and Rashid Shaheed or banging with power forwards like Drake London and Mike Evans, the 6-foot, 193-pounder is up to the challenge. Mitchell isn’t infallible in coverage, but he’s definitely had his share of wins, routinely accentuating his PBUs with verbal exclamation points.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 13 overall
Advertised as an “offensive weapon” coming out of Georgia, Bowers has actually justified the ambiguous descriptor by lining up all over the damn field. Here’s the distribution of his 164 snaps thus far, per Next Gen Stats:
- Left wide: 6 snaps (3.7%)
- Left slot: 23 snaps (14%)
- Left tight: 31 snaps (18.9%)
- Fullback: 2 snaps (1.2%)
- Halfback: 1 snap (0.6%)
- Right tight: 42 snaps (25.6%)
- Right slot: 38 snaps (23.2%)
- Right wide: 21 snaps (12.8%)
Did I mention the guy’s a multi-level threat? Bowers tormented the Ravens in all areas during a nine-catch, 98-yard outing in Baltimore.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 4 overall
With four touchdowns in the last three weeks, Harrison has already made his dud debut a distant memory. That said, the vaunted WR prospect’s clearly still getting comfortable with his new quarterback, as evidenced by missed connections on some back-shoulder throws and timing-based routes. But man, when Harrison’s on the same page with Kyler Murray ... well, the receiver can rack up four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first 12 minutes of a game.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 23 overall
Having run a limited route tree at LSU, this big-bodied burner carried a “project” label into April’s draft. Judging by the early returns on his NFL career, that descriptor seems inaccurate. OK, Thomas doesn’t snap off every route like Justin Jefferson, but his instant impact has been a huge positive amid Jacksonville’s dreary 0-4 start. The Jaguars regularly feed this 6-2, 209-pound playmaker with catch-and-run opportunities, but he’s also a home-run hitter downfield, thanks to his elite speed and ball-tracking ability. If this guy’s raw, the sky’s the limit when he’s fully cooked.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 14 overall
Fuaga starred at Oregon State as a rugged right tackle, but the Saints immediately moved him to the blind side, pushing disappointing 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning across the formation. It’s been a pretty seamless transition for Fuaga, who’s yet to allow a sack, per PFF, while also showcasing his plus athleticism in Klint Kubiak’s wide-zone run scheme.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 5 overall
A mountain of a man at 6-8, 322 pounds, Alt has a game has often been described as “boringly effective” -- his reps might not be as flashy as some other blockers' pancakes, but the guy typically just gets the job done. That was certainly the case in Week 1, when Alt aced a hellacious opening assignment, holding Maxx Crosby to zero pressures in his pass-blocking snaps against the perennial Pro Bowler. T.J. Watt gave Alt some trouble in Week 3 -- a game in which Alt sprained his MCL, sidelining him for Week 4 -- but the rookie has shown plenty of promise as a sturdy bookend. And that's despite switching from the left side to the right upon arrival in Los Angeles, with accomplished blind-side protector Rashawn Slater already in the fold.
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 38 overall
Sweat certainly didn’t nail the pre-draft process, raising eyebrows when he didn’t weigh in at the Senior Bowl and raising character concerns when he was arrested for a DWI in early April. But the Titans flew out to meet with Sweat and his family one week before the draft and came away comfortable enough to select the Texas product early in the second round. Thus far, the 6-4, 366-pounder who goes by “Meatloaf” has been exactly what Tennessee hoped to get: an immovable object against the run.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 15 overall
Joining a deep edge-rushing rotation in Indianapolis, Latu began the season as a designated pass rusher, but injuries have his snaps on the rise, resulting in nine pressures over the last two weeks. The first defender off the board in April, Latu has a skill set that is far more refined than your average rookie's. And one thing has become abundantly clear: Assigning a tight end to block this edge menace is playing with fire. He whooped Cole Kmet for a crucial strip-sack of Caleb Williams in Week 3 and then impressively discarded the gargantuan Darnell Washington to stuff Najee Harris for a highlight-reel TFL this past Sunday.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 7 overall
An imposing physical specimen at 6-6, 342 pounds, Latham is making the same transition as Taliese Fuaga, going from standout college right tackle to rookie NFL left tackle. The debut wasn’t ideal, as Pro Football Focus had him allowing five pressures and a sack. But in the three games since, Latham has yielded just four total pressures and zero sacks. This is the kind of rapid growth you expect when you combine a highly pedigreed prospect with esteemed offensive line coach Bill Callahan.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 30 overall
Everyone knows the requisite trait for playing cornerback: You have to have a short memory. And when you’re a cover man making the leap from college to the NFL -- transitioning to far more stringent restrictions on contact -- you need a memory like the protagonist in Memento. Wiggins enjoyed a fine debut in limited snaps against the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs, but he was forced to miss Week 2 after suffering a neck injury in a scary car accident. Back in action against the Cowboys in Week 3, the rookie got his first NFL start -- and it didn’t go well. He missed tackles, drew flags and was spun in circles by All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb. To his credit, he came right back out last week and flourished in Baltimore’s statement-making win over Buffalo on the Sunday Night Football stage.
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 47 overall
New York’s drafting has been hit or miss over the last decade, but this franchise sure seems to have an eye for second-round safeties! Following in the footsteps of Landon Collins and Xavier McKinney, Nubin looks like another keeper in the back end. He’s piled up 22 tackles (which tied him for the most among all rookies through Week 4, with Seahawks LB Tyrice Knight), and you have to believe the ball-hawking ability that allowed him to snag 12 picks in his final three seasons at Minnesota will bear fruit soon.
NOTE: You are now entering THE PROJECTION SECTION. The next two rankees are the only two players on this list who've logged fewer than 100 offensive/defensive snaps at publishing.
DRAFTED: Round 4, No. 134 overall
Allen is the youngest player in the NFL today. He’ll have to wait until late January to legally consume an adult beverage! In New York’s Week 2 win at Tennessee, he caught a touchdown pass from the league’s oldest player, Aaron Rodgers. And that was only Allen’s first TD of the day, as he supplied what ultimately wound up being the game-winning score with a 20-yard scamper late in the fourth quarter. Already looking like a fourth-round steal, the 6-1, 235-pounder is the thunder to Breece Hall’s lightning.
DRAFTED: Round 3, No. 70 overall
In yesterday’s NFL, with passes flying all over the yard, nickelbacks were typically more finesse, coverage types. But in today’s NFL, with the ground game back en vogue, you need a nickel with the capacity to serve as a downhill enforcer. Dru Phillips brings that to the table. Currently recovering from a calf injury suffered early in Week 3, he showed plenty in his first two games, particularly in the narrow loss to Washington. The guy was all over the field against the Commanders, stuffing the stat sheet with 12 tackles (two for loss) and a sack in which he displayed spectacular click-and-close to corral Jayden Daniels.
NOTE: You are now exiting THE PROJECTION SECTION. Please come again.
DRAFTED: Round 3, No. 89 overall
This is the same type of physical nickel as Dru Phillips, the rookie who sits one slot above. Yes, Smith missed a tackle on Darnell Mooney’s fourth-quarter touchdown during Tampa Bay’s overtime loss in Atlanta. On the other hand, he initially caught my eye a few weeks back with a splashy pair of fourth-quarter plays in Tampa Bay’s 20-16 upset of Detroit. On the first, Smith chucked lead blocker Sam LaPorta before derailing freight-train back David Montgomery. On the second, Smith immediately diagnosed a pitch to burner back Jahmyr Gibbs and triggered downhill to log a 5-yard TFL.
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 42 overall
Lassiter’s a tough, agile, instinctive cover man, but a slow 40-time at Georgia's pro day led to serious questions about whether he could survive on the outside in the NFL. So far, the second-round pick has allowed just a 42.0 passer rating when targeted, per NGS, giving DeMeco Ryans another promising young cornerback to complement emerging star Derek Stingley Jr. Yeah, Lassiter had some trouble with Brian Thomas Jr. this past Sunday. As noted in the Nate Wiggins blurb above, playing cornerback at this level ain’t easy.
DRAFTED: Round 3, No. 86 overall
Over the past few seasons, the 49ers’ offensive line has kind of felt like Trent Williams ... and a whole lotta filler. But the unit appears more well-rounded in the early goings of 2024, thanks in no small part to this third-round find. Just ask Williams, who paid Puni the ultimate compliment a few weeks ago: “I forget he’s a rookie sometimes.” Puni was at the forefront of San Francisco’s 30-13 beatdown of New England last Sunday, mauling the Patriots as a run blocker and stonewalling all comers in pass protection.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 26 overall
Despite earning first-team All-ACC honors as a left tackle in his final two years at Duke, Barton was drafted in the first round to be the retired Ryan Jensen’s replacement at center in Tampa. In Week 1, Barton ... looked like a left tackle transitioning to center. But he’s shown immense growth since, notably holding his own against Eagles game wrecker Jalen Carter just last week. Of course, this week, he committed a costly holding penalty during the fourth quarter of Tampa Bay’s overtime loss in Atlanta. It’s a process.
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 34 overall
Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are clearly a run-first operation. But the rookie out of Georgia has quickly become the Bolts’ most consistent threat in the passing game, comfortably leading the team in targets (24), receptions (15), receiving yards (176) and receiving first downs (10). Whether juking multiple defenders into virality, deftly navigating the back of the end zone or exploding into the open field, McConkey’s a playmaker.
DRAFTED: Round 4, No. 125 overall
Let’s immediately address the elephant in the room: Late in Tampa Bay’s overtime loss at Atlanta, Irving coughed up a devastating fumble. Jessie Bates got him, dooming an attempted four-minute drill that could have put the game away. I think he’ll learn. And doubting the man has already proven fraught in 2024 ...
Undersized to begin with, Bucky didn’t help his draft stock with unexplosive athletic testing at February’s NFL Scouting Combine -- but he looks plenty athletic on an NFL football field. While the Buccaneers were surprisingly blown out of Raymond James Stadium by the Broncos back in Week 3, you couldn’t blame Irving. In his best outing of the young season -- 12 touches for 84 yards -- he showcased the kind of vision and agility that makes you wonder why anyone cares about athletic testing in the first place.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 28 overall
Everyone knew it was trouble when the Chiefs landed the fastest man in combine history. Four weeks into the season, Worthy’s hit three home runs: a 21-yard reverse touchdown, a 35-yard coverage-bust score and a majestic 54-yard receiving TD. The challenge now, in the wake of Rashee Rice hitting injured reserve, is becoming more of an any every-down threat for Kansas City’s injury-riddled offense.
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 1 overall
The No. 1 overall pick in April sits at No. 25 in October. Not what the Bears hoped for, especially with No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels topping this ranking. Frankly, I’m sure many of you think Williams should be left off the list entirely. Perhaps I’m a Caleb apologist, but I do ascribe some of his struggles to the suboptimal environment right now in Chicago, starting with the sieve of an offensive line. Not that the quarterback’s without blame, as he’s struggled with consistency and seemed overwhelmed at times by the pre-snap chess match. But he still flashes enticing traits on a pretty regular basis, so I’m keeping him in this mix -- for now.
