We're finally here. Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are five of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect on Opening Weekend.
Chris Jones, Chiefs front vs. Chargers O-line without Rashawn Slater
In a special Friday showdown in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the defending AFC Champion Chiefs are taking on the Chargers at Arena Corinthians. Arguably the most critical matchup of the game will be the Chiefs' pass rush against L.A.'s offensive line … especially after the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater to a season-ending torn patellar tendon. Since Slater was drafted in 2021, quarterback Justin Herbert has averaged roughly 0.09 more fantasy points per attempt with Slater on the field than without him. Over 30-40 pass attempts in a game, that can be a difference of 3-4 fantasy points -- essentially a full touchdown. And while Joe Alt should hold down the fort at left tackle, guard Trey Pipkins will kick back outside to right tackle, where he allowed the most sacks among players at his position in 2023 (13).
The Chargers' new-look O-line will be thrown straight into the fire against Chris Jones and the Chiefs front. Individually, Jones generated 23 pressures from edge alignment last season, most among defensive tackles, and averaged a 0.85 second get-off, quickest among defensive tackles (min. 200 pass rushes). He's a game-wrecker at the position and could cause major havoc for Herbert and his protection.
The one potential bright spot for fantasy: wide receiver Ladd McConkey led the entire NFL in target share under pressure last year as a rookie (29.5%). If the Chiefs get to Herbert early, you can expect Herbert to get the ball to McConkey as a result.
Fantasy Fallout: Don't expect the hottest of starts from Justin Herbert or sleeper wideouts Tre Harris, Quentin Johnston or KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Ladd McConkey, however, is a full go as Herbert's safety outlet and a fringe WR1 for fantasy.
Malik Nabers in line for high-volume, high-flying Sunday vs. Commanders
In his stellar rookie season last year, sixth-overall pick Malik Nabers logged two games with a target rate above 40%: Week 2 against the Commanders … and Week 9 against the Commanders. His 69.2% target rate in just his second NFL game was the highest by any receiver with 15+ routes run in any game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). No player saw more targets against a single team in either of the last two seasons than Nabers' 29 against Washington last year.
And now, Nabers has a new quarterback. While Russell Wilson's 1.1% completion percentage over expected last year wasn't elite, it was much better than Daniel Jones' -1.3% and Drew Lock's -2.9%. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson completed 45.5% of his deep attempts last year, second-highest among qualified passers. Meanwhile, the Giants completed just 20% of their deep attempts as a team -- the lowest rate by any offense over the past six seasons.
All of this bodes well for Nabers in fantasy: a deep target is worth 2.2 fantasy points on average, whereas all other targets are worth just 1.7 points each (based on 2024 data). And while the Commanders defense improved under Dan Quinn last season, they still allowed the sixth-most deep receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Between his stratospheric volume and the upgrade at quarterback, Nabers should be one of the top plays at the position in Week 1 (and beyond).
Fantasy Fallout: Malik Nabers should be one of the highest-ranked wide receivers in all of fantasy for Week 1, in the tier with Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
Micah Parsons, Packers look to disrupt Jared Goff's clean pocket
A lot has changed in Detroit. This offseason, the Lions waved goodbye to Assistant Coach of the Year Ben Johnson (hired by Chicago), Pro Bowl guard Kevin Zeitler (signed by Tennessee) and Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow (retired). It's difficult to quantify exactly how much these departures will affect the offense, but it's likely to make Jared Goff's job harder. When throwing from a clean pocket on early downs last year, Goff completed 81.8% of his passes (second-highest in the NFL), with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions on 292 attempts. But when the Detroit QB faced early-down pressure, his completion percentage fell to 52.0% and he threw just three touchdowns and still six interceptions on 102 attempts.
Can Green Bay "dirty" the pocket against Goff in Week 1? Well, they just acquired Micah Parsons, who leads the NFL in pressures (335) and pressure rate (21.1%) since he was drafted in 2021 (minimum 200 pass rushes). While Detroit was NFL Pro's third-ranked pass offense against pressure in 2024, that was before the departures. And while Green Bay ranked fifth on the defensive side of the same metric, that was before adding Parsons.
Translation: A good-on-good matchup might be much tougher for Goff and Co. this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown should remain productive as Goff's primary quick-throw outlet, but this matchup will hurt the floor for Goff himself and for downfield receiver Jameson Williams.
Fantasy Fallout: If you have better options -- which you should -- sit both Jared Goff and Jameson Williams in Week 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a must-start, but temper expectations for him as well. At least for this week, he may be more mid-range WR2 than the high-end WR1 he was drafted to be.
Josh Allen vs. Ravens' restructured (and resurrected) secondary
Over the first 10 weeks of the 2024 season, the Ravens had allowed the most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks across the entire league. Specifically, they'd been hammered on downfield passes (10+ air yards), surrendering a league-high 1,165 yards on those throws. Then, in an act of pure (if delayed) brilliance, they moved defensive back Kyle Hamilton primarily to safety. Over the balance of the season, Baltimore allowed the fewest passing yards, passing touchdowns and fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It was a resurrection for the ages.
Notably, Baltimore's secondary stifled Josh Allen in both Week 4 and the Divisional Round, holding him to just 153.5 passing yards per game and zero touchdown passes across both contests. Allen struggled against blitzless man coverage all year, completing just 46.8% of his passes in such situations, and the Ravens played blitzless man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league under new DC Zach Orr. On 14 such dropbacks across their two meetings, Allen was pressured seven times (a whopping 50%), and completed just six of 13 pass attempts for 46 yards.
Allen's 7.3 fantasy points in Week 4 against Baltimore marked his worst fantasy performance of the season, and the Divisional Round would have been another disaster if not for a pair of rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, through those two meetings in 2024, Khalil Shakir was the only Bills pass-catcher to see double-digit targets, and he managed a decent 11.5 fantasy points per game. If the Ravens can continue to get to the Buffalo QB without blitzing, and while manning up his receivers, things could be messy for Allen and his outside receivers once again.
Fantasy Fallout: You're never sitting Josh Allen in a season-long league, but he might not be your best bet in DFS lineups for Week 1. And while you can FLEX Khalil Shakir in a pinch, try to avoid potential 2025 sleepers Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer at least for this Sunday.
Ben Johnson brings new style of play (action) to Chicago
Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is now the head coach for the Bears, and you can expect a whole lot of changes with Johnson calling plays in Chicago. Primary among those changes: The prevalence of play action. In 2024, Johnson's Lions ran play action on a monster 36.8% of dropbacks, the highest rate by any team over either of the last two seasons. As for the Bears … their 17.3% play-action rate was the fourth-lowest in the league and less than half Detroit's mark. The Lions were NFL Pro's second-most efficient passing offense, behind the Ravens, and led the league with a 54% success rate on passing plays. On play action dropbacks specifically, they were top five in both metrics and led the NFL with 1,990 yards and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Bears passing attack was bottom 10 across the board.
This isn't exactly rocket science: Over the past three seasons, the average NFL attempt on play action resulted in 8.3 yards, +0.09 EPA and 0.49 fantasy points. The average attempt when not utilizing play action resulted in just 6.7 yards, -0.01 EPA and 0.38 fantasy points. Fortunately, Chicago will run more play action in Week 1 and beyond -- they did so on 29.9% of 134 dropbacks in the 2025 preseason, the third-highest rate in the league. That's good for the entire offense, but it might be particularly notable for Caleb Williams, DJ Moore (who led Chicago with a 31.3% target share on play action in 2024) and rookie tight end Colston Loveland (tight ends tend to see higher target shares on play action).
The only roadblock in Week 1? Last year, the Vikings defense was exceptional against play action, holding opponents to the second-lowest passer rating (82.5) and worst TD-INT ratio (2-4) on such plays. It should be an excellent first test for Johnson, Williams and the new look offense.
Fantasy Fallout: You can expect Caleb Williams to perform better in 2025 than he did as a rookie, but that doesn't mean you're starting him in Week 1 (except in two-QB leagues or as an inexpensive DFS option). For now, roll out DJ Moore and consider Rome Odunze as a deeper upside FLEX play, while monitoring everyone's usage as this new scheme takes shape.
