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Eight teams have made it to the Divisional Round, and four more will advance to the conference championships this weekend! As always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of the week, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each contest.
For the Divisional Round, we're breaking down the most crucial matchups from each side of the ball in each of the four games! These are the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro Divisional Round preview context and the fallout we can expect on Saturday and Sunday!
Josh Allen's quick passing game against the stampeding Broncos defense
Through the regular season, Josh Allen's production on quick throws was among the best in the league. He threw 12 touchdowns and just one interception and had a 115.2 passer rating on quick passes, along with 0.25 EPA/dropback and a 50.5% success rate. Then he stepped it up another notch in the Wild Card Round, completing 16 of 17 quick attempts for 173 yards, one TD, a 128.7 passer rating and a whopping 10.2 yards per attempt against the Panthers.
Now he'll take that quick release into a contest against the ferocious Denver pass rush. They sported the league's second-highest pressure rate (40.7%) and highest sack rate (9.7%) in the regular season and have made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks all year. That said, if they're "beatable" anywhere, it might be on the quick pass — they rank 17th in NFL Pro’s defensive efficiency on quick throws (whereas they rank second on extended throws). If Allen can avoid Vance Joseph's pressure by getting the ball out in a couple seconds or less, it will put a sizeable dent in Denver's chances at making the AFC Championship.
RJ Harvey and Bo Nix finding the end zone against Buffalo's defense
Only two teams scored on a higher percentage of their red zone carries than the Broncos this season: the Vikings and the Colts. With seven scores from RJ Harvey and five from Bo Nix (plus four from J.K. Dobbins early in the year), Denver found paydirt on 22.2% of their red zone rush attempts. As a result, they rank fifth in NFL Pro’s rushing efficiency in the red zone, despite only being the league's 14th-ranked scoring offense, which helped them squeak out 11 one-score wins in 2025, most in the NFL.
None of this is great news for the Bills and their suspect run defense. Buffalo ranks 29th in NFL Pro’s overall defensive rushing efficiency and 24th in the red zone. No team allowed more rushing touchdowns in 2025 than the Bills (24) and they surrendered multiple rushing scores in three of their five losses. While all three of Jacksonville's touchdowns in the Wild Card Round came through the air, they gashed the Bills for 154 yards on 23 carries (6.7 per carry) in a narrow loss. Along with great defense, the ground game will be Denver's best bet at beating the Bills on Saturday.
Brock Purdy against the Seattle blitz … or lack thereof
The 49ers-Seahawks game might hinge quite a bit on Seattle's willingness to blitz Brock Purdy and the 49ers. According to NFL Pro, San Francisco's offense ranks number one in the entire league in passing efficiency without a blitz but drops all the way to 24th against the blitz. When he was blitzed this year, Purdy logged a seven-to-four TD-to-INT ratio, with -0.10 EPA/dropback. On non-blitz dropbacks, he threw 13 TDs and six INTs and jumped to +0.21 EPA/dropback. Against Eagles blitzes in the Wild Card Round, Purdy completed just one of his seven attempts and had a 39.6 passer rating.
Meanwhile, Seattle is good on defense regardless of how many pass rushers they send — they're 11th in NFL Pro defensive efficiency with no blitz — but when they do blitz, they're number one overall. They allowed a 77.2 passer rating when blitzing this season, with four interceptions to just six touchdowns and an NFL-low -0.40 EPA/dropback. The only catch: the Seahawks blitzed at the league's eighth-lowest rate in 2025 (23.1%). Notably, that included just 15.8% of Purdy's dropbacks in Seattle's Week 1 loss to San Fran, but 28.1% of his dropbacks in their convincing Week 18 win (close to league average). If they want to rattle Purdy en route to the NFC Championship, they may want to dial up the blitz even more often this Saturday.
Sam Darnold's ceiling if San Francisco can't get pressure
On his 152 dropbacks under pressure in 2025, Sam Darnold completed 66 of 123 attempts (53.7%), averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt and threw six TDs and six INTs for a concerning 69.4 passer rating and -0.58 EPA/dropback. He was pressured on at least 28% of dropbacks in all three Seattle losses, including the loss to the 49ers in Week 1 (32.0%). But without pressure, Darnold posted a league-high 9.2 yards per attempt, along with 19 TDs to six INTs, a 109.4 passer rating, 72.6% completion rate and 0.33 EPA/dropback. It's a night and day difference for the Seahawks QB heading into the 2025 Divisional Round.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, they no longer have Nick Bosa — who logged multiple pressures and the only sack in that Week 1 meeting — and will likely be without Fred Warner as well. Largely as a result, they recorded the second-lowest pressure rate in the league this season (26.7%) and the lowest rate of Wild Card Weekend as well (16.2% against Philly). Barring some sort of pass rush renaissance for Robert Saleh's crew this Saturday, Darnold will likely be operating from a clean pocket most of the day … which is very bad news for Niners fans.
The Texans' run game tendencies against the Patriots defense
During the regular season, the Texans ran the ball from under center on 63.8% of attempts, 11th-highest in the league, slightly above league average. However, that rate skyrocketed to 83.9% against the Steelers in their wild card win, a game where Woody Marks and Nick Chubb combined for 160 yards on 29 carries (5.5 per carry). This was despite Houston's offense ranking 31st in NFL Pro’s rushing efficiency under center (and just 24th overall). However, they rank eighth in rushing efficiency out of shotgun — one of just two run game matchup advantages they hold over New England on NFL Pro (along with QB scrambles).
In the only loss the Patriots have suffered since Week 4, the Buffalo Bills tagged them for 168 rushing yards on 37 attempts in Week 15, including 11 for 48 by Josh Allen and 22 for 107 by James Cook. More than half of those 168 yards came on runs out of shotgun, where the Patriots run defense has been a bit more susceptible, according to NFL Pro’s rankings. With C.J. Stroud's inconsistency of late, Houston's best chance at the upset this Sunday will likely be keeping Drake Maye off the field and shortening the game with a somewhat disguised rush attack.
Drake Maye as a scrambler against the Texans' vaunted defense
The 2025 Texans defense is arguably the best in the league this season and maybe in recent memory. On NFL Pro, they're number one in overall passing efficiency, number three in overall rushing efficiency and somewhere in the top 10 in almost every individual metric. Except one. They are dead last in NFL Pro efficiency against QB scrambles. On those plays, Houston surrendered a league-high 9.2 yards per carry, allowed positive rush yards over expected on a league-high 62.5% of attempts and lost an atrocious 0.83 EPA/carry (second-most to the Jets).
Enter Drake Maye. He led the league this season with 62 QB scrambles, his 423 scramble rushing yards were third-most behind only Justin Herbert and Josh Allen and he added 0.43 EPA/carry on scrambles as well. In Sunday's wild card win over the Chargers, he scrambled for 60 yards (most in the playoffs so far) on five attempts, with 22 rush yards over expected (also the most). Houston's defense is aggressive and accordingly dangerous, but it also opens them up to escaping quarterbacks, and Maye could scorch them if given the opportunity.
Matthew Stafford's deep ball beating the Bears secondary
Through the 2025 season, Matthew Stafford threw the most touchdowns (10) and the second-most yards (1,018) and posted the third-highest passer rating (122.3) when throwing the ball deep. This was partially volume — he threw a deep pass on 12.2% of attempts, sixth-highest in the league — but it was also effectiveness, as he was top 10 in completion rate and EPA/dropback, with just one interception on deep attempts. The Rams come into this weekend ranking second in NFL Pro’s deep passing efficiency as a result.
Bad news, Bears. NFL Pro has Chicago as the 22nd-ranked defense against deep passes entering the Divisional Round. In 2025, only the Cowboys allowed more deep touchdown passes and only four teams allowed a higher completion rate on those throws. The Bears allowed 61 pass plays of 20+ yards (second-most to the Ravens) and the Rams logged 72 of their own (most by any offense). This is shaping up to a day of big plays for Sean McVay's air attack.
D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai against the Rams front
Through the course of the regular season, Bears running backs recorded a 47.8% success rate, second-highest in the league (coincidentally behind the Rams). As a result, Chicago enters the Divisional Round ranked fourth in overall offensive rushing efficiency on NFL Pro, as well as second outside the tackles, third under center and first against light boxes. Their RB duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai managed 81 yards on 21 carries against the Packers in the Wild Card Round (as well as 60 yards on just three catches).
Meanwhile, while the Rams aren't necessarily weak against the run, Chicago does hold the NFL Pro advantage in that phase of the game and in six of the nine specific run game metrics they measure. Also, Los Angeles logged a 25.3% missed tackle rate on rushes this season. Ben Johnson's crew can greatly improve their chances at an upset by extending drives and keeping Matthew Stafford and Co. off the field with an effective run game.
