And then there were four.
It's the No. 1 seeds vs. the No. 3 seeds on Championship Sunday, pitting our top two teams for the last two months against the defending-champion Chiefs and the darling Lions, who have more than proven their worth at this stage. Some might have felt it was the Bills' time, but it wasn't meant to be for Buffalo.
Interestingly, the two favorites in the conference title bouts are the teams with quarterbacks who have not been to a Super Bowl. Does that mean Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff might have an edge heading into Sunday? Or will the cream of the Ravens and 49ers rise to the top in their home stadiums?Â
Either way, we're guaranteed to have a marquee Super Bowl matchup. That's about as good a guarantee as you can hope for at this point of the season. In less than a week, we'll find out who's headed to Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII.
We may be close to the finish line, but the final three games of the season are shaping up to be classics. Why stop now?
NOTE: Up/down arrows reflect movement from the Divisional Round Power Rankings.
At halftime, the tension was high. Midway through the fourth quarter, the game was a laugher. That's the power of Lamar Jackson and an offense that can shift to bully-ball mode when it needs to. The Ravens seemed to struggle with the Texans' blitz-heavy approach at first, but offensive coordinator Todd Monken made nice adjustments throughout the game, with a big turn in the third quarter. He really leaned on the two-TE sets in the second half and ground down a worn-out Houston defense. And hats off to Mike Macdonald's defense for holding the Texans' offensive unit to three first-half points despite Houston crossing midfield three times. Macdonald is quickly becoming a household name after spending the past decade being groomed by the Harbaughs (John in Baltimore, Jim at Michigan), and all three of them could be NFL head coaches next season -- especially if the Ravens win the Super Bowl. And right now, they look pretty tough to beat.
There were plenty of frayed nerves at Levi's Stadium on Saturday night, most especially from when Green Bay took the lead again in the third quarter until Dre Greenlaw's "Get down!" pick ended with him finally getting down. The Packers left a ton of points on the board, and Brock Purdy didn't look right for about 55 of the 60 minutes, but the 49ers survived to earn a playoff victory that was huge for the second-year quarterback and his coach. It felt like the FOX broadcast couldn't get enough of Kyle Shanahan's record (0-30) in games where he's trailed by seven or more points in the fourth quarter. Well, make it 1-30. The Packers had plenty to do with it, failing to capitalize on a number of opportunities. But it was a gut-check game for the Niners, who lost Deebo Samuel to injury in the first half and were having trouble stopping the Packers' offense until the fourth quarter. Did a little of their sheen evaporate in the grueling win? Perhaps, but that can all be rectified by taking care of business against Detroit. If Shanahan can reach a second Super Bowl in a five-year span with two different quarterbacks, it would be a feather in his coaching cap.
The Lions are a win away from the Super Bowl. They've been here exactly once before in their existence, 32 years ago, when Detroit ran into a buzzsaw of a Washington team that would go on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Perhaps the same thing plays out Sunday against a potent 49ers outfit, but I am not so sure. The Lions have graduated from "Cinderella story" status. They're no longer the cute little team that could. They're a clutch, tough-minded, offensively dangerous squad that went 6-3 on the road this season. Jared Goff has answered critics. A Detroit defense that has taken some lumps also has found ways to get critical stops at the right times. Can this team somehow march into the hornet's nest and upset a Niners team that struggled to beat Green Bay at home? Absolutely. Try denying it from a player like Frank Ragnow, who has been through hell and back in Detroit. The Lions went 17-46-2 during Ragnow's first four NFL seasons, with the center suffering a litany of injuries along the way. Ragnow had another health issue on Sunday, but he missed zero snaps against the Bucs, dragging himself onto the field time and time again, flanked by two struggling guards (Graham Glasgow and Kayode Awosika), yet holding 350-pound Vita Vea to a single tackle while allowing one pressure all game.
You really have to tip your cap to Kansas City's defense for stepping up one more time after it had carried this team for stretches this season. Down key members from every level of the unit by game's end, the Chiefs made two big, fourth-quarter stops and then kept the Bills from getting closer than a 44-yard FG try, and we know how that one went. Early on, it looked like a last-team-with-the-ball-wins type of game -- an up-and-down-the-field decathlon -- but the Chiefs' defense had put in more work, with Buffalo running nearly twice as many plays (41 to 21) as Kansas City in the first half. The Chiefs' offense didn't slow down much in one of its better games this season, but Mecole Hardman's fumble though the end zone prevented the defense from having any breathing room. In the end, Kansas City forced Josh Allen to be patient, and Buffalo just couldn't land its haymakers. The difference in the game might have been the deep shots. Patrick Mahomes was 3-for-3 on passes of 20-plus air yards, per Next Gen Stats. Allen was 0-for-4. The Bills averaged about three gains of 20-plus yards per game this season, but the Chiefs wouldn't allow them more than 15 on any offensive play Sunday. Don't overlook this defense as the key factor heading into Sunday's showdown in Baltimore.
When I hedged against the Bills a bit during their late-season push, boy, did I hear it from readers. Buffalo was ranked third on a slew of other fine power rankings out there, and believe me, I understood that placement. But I also saw a team that possessed an innate ability to make things far more difficult (sometimes excruciatingly so) on itself than it needed to be. All credit due for turning the season on its head after dropping to 6-6. I mean, the Bills hosted two playoff contests with a chance to go to the AFC Championship Game. What more do you want? Now there are major questions staring the team in the face this offseason. The futures of Stefon Diggs, Von Miller, Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are a bit murky. Almost the entire defensive front is headed for free agency. Tre'Davious White is coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries. Would Josh Allen be able to build up chemistry with a new group of receivers if there's change there? So many questions. Which is why the latest loss to the Chiefs -- in what was supposed to be the Bills' year -- is going to sting all offseason.
They led by seven points entering the fourth quarter, and though the Packers were on the road, it felt like a game they could have won. Two dropped picks, some silly tackling issues and a missed field goal -- that was the difference right there, in essence. I didn't see much of a disparity, talent-wise, between the 49ers and Packers, and I think that's a heck of an endorsement heading into a (suddenly) very exciting offseason for Green Bay. But that doesn't mean the loss won't hurt because you never truly know when your next shot will be. That said, Jordan Love and that wildly talented group of young pass catchers have grown a whole lot this season, and the Packers will keep adding to the offensive line and defense this offseason. It's a really tough division, although it's hard not to imagine this being the start of something quite special in Titletown.
Just as they did in their first game of the season, the Texans held serve for one half against the Ravens in Baltimore before the wheels came off after the break. In eight quarters at M&T Bank Stadium this season, Houston's offense scored four field goals. But considering everything else in between those games, the Texans had a tremendous season. Football is back in Houston. In the previous three seasons prior to this one, they won a combined 11 games. They matched that win total in this campaign alone, counting the postseason, and there's a core in place the city can rally around. C.J. Stroud is unquestionably one of the league's brightest young stars. Will Anderson Jr. looks like his defensive counterpart. DeMeco Ryans could have gone 6-11 in Year 1, and Texans fans still would have loved him, but the head coach was outstanding in his debut season, quietly dealing with a badly thinning roster amid injuries. Things are looking so good that it wouldn't be shocking if most people have completely pushed the Jaguars to the side and view the Texans as strong AFC South favorites in 2024.
I didn't give the Buccaneers enough credit heading into Sunday. That's only fair to mention after I had them at No. 9 in last week's Power Rankings, sitting one slot behind the Cowboys, who had just lost their opening playoff game. But the Bucs convinced me they were good enough to win Sunday because, well, they almost did. When it was 17-all heading into the fourth quarter, I thought the Lions were in some trouble. The Bucs were throwing the kitchen sink at them and had shifted momentum. But then Tampa Bay's defense really struggled to get edge pressure or cover Detroit's receivers, and the offense could only score once more before Baker Mayfield's game-sealing interception. Mayfield was mostly strong this season, rallying the team from a 4-7 mark to a division title. This offense still needs more firepower, even with promising second-year returns from RB Rachaad White and TE Cade Otton, the latter of whom will make every fantasy guru's "breakout candidate" list entering next season. But if Mayfield returns, Tampa can compete for the NFC South title again.
