NFL IQ: Trade trends and projected moves for 2026 NFL Draft

Tens of thousands of hours are spent crafting thousands of mock drafts across the internet heading into the NFL draft. If you're reading this, you've probably spent a fair few hours reading through the mocks as well. But there's one series of wrenches, thrown into the machine each year, that can reshuffle the smartest set of predictions in a matter of moments.

Trades.

Endless research analyzing the reasonable fits for the teams currently slotted at each pick, and then a couple of draft-day phone calls later and the entire landscape has shifted. The question: What can we learn about the economy of draft trades to set our expectations for the 2026 draft? Using historical data and insights from NFL IQ, I've compiled at least some of the answers.

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League Trade Trends

Over the last five years, we've seen 142 picks traded per draft on average and 12 first-round picks traded per draft on average. However, we've seen significant fluctuation over that span as well, especially at the top. The 18 first-round picks moved in 2022 were the most ever in a single draft, with nine teams making multiple first-round selections and 10 teams not making a first-round pick at all (both common-draft-era records). But three years later, in 2025, just six first-round picks were traded, tied for the fewest in the last 40 drafts.

Across a wider sample, it's most common to see around 10 to 12 first-round picks traded (and a little more than half the picks in the draft moved in total). So far in 2026, six firsts have already been moved, including four in packages for players -- Sauce Gardner (16th overall), Micah Parsons (20th), Trent McDuffie (29th) and Jaylen Waddle (30th). That means that based on historical trade trends, we can probably expect another four or more between now and the end of Day 1. But who, when and how?

Franchise Trade Trends

The disparity in draft trade frequency from franchise to franchise is borderline mind-boggling. Over the last five years, the league average for picks moved is 4.2 per draft. But you have teams that move their picks far more freely, like the Chiefs, Rams and Vikings (5.8 per draft), as well as Howie Roseman's Eagles (5.6). The Browns also stand out here, with 5.2 trades per draft. They sent three first-rounders to the Texans when they traded for Deshaun Watson in 2022 and moved down from the second-overall pick last year, but the Browns head into 2026 with the sixth-overall pick (their own) and the 24th overall pick (Jacksonville's).

Then on the other end of the scale, the Chargers and Bengals can be almost entirely removed from the conversation. Both teams have made just seven trades over the last five drafts combined, averaging 1.4 per draft, and neither has moved its first-round pick once over that span. The Ravens also have not moved their first-rounder in any of the last five drafts. The last time Baltimore traded their first was 2019, and you have to go back to 2018 for Cincinnati and 2015 for the Bolts (who were still in San Diego).

How about the front offices most likely to move up or down specifically? NFL IQ has collected a wealth of helpful data on the current GMs/decision-makers, extending back up to 15 drafts. Unsurprisingly, the Rams stand out -- since becoming GM in 2012, Les Snead has moved down from a pick an absurd 25 times (though he's also moved up 15 times). The Seahawks' John Schneider has similar numbers, with 24 trade-downs and 13 trade-ups, and the Colts' Chris Ballard isn't far behind, with 15 trade-downs and just five trade-ups in eight drafts. Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is also notable, as Arizona has traded down six times but up just once over the last two years.

As for the other direction, the most incredible trend belongs to Saints GM Mickey Loomis -- since 2011, New Orleans has traded up 20 times and traded down exactly zero times. If you're theorizing a 2026 trade that involves the Saints moving down … stop. Other trade-up trend-setters of note include Brett Veach of the Chiefs (15 moves up since 2017) and Jason Licht of the Buccaneers (15 moves up since 2015).

First-Round Trade Archetypes

The last brick in the foundation of draft-trade trends is the small collection of trade "archetypes" we see recycled from draft to draft, specifically in the first round. Obviously, there is a wide array of trade constructions, and plenty of nuance within most moves, but the majority of Day 1 deals tend to follow one or two versions of the following blueprints.

Packaging Firsts for a Blue-Chip Pick

The Browns did this to move from fifth- to second-overall last year for Travis Hunter. The Texans did it back in 2023 to move up from 12th- to third-overall for Will Anderson Jr. When a potential franchise-changing player is available and a front office is positioned close enough to pull off the right multi-first package, this archetype leads to some of the most exciting moves in the draft. Like the one where Kansas City sent a package of picks to Buffalo in 2018 to draft a Texas Tech gunslinger named Patrick Mahomes.

Mid-Round Maneuvers

Very often, maneuvers in the middle of the first round are triggered by the need to "snipe" a targeted player before another team or to snag the last player in a positional tier. Perhaps the most-recent memorable example was Philly's 2021 move from 12th to 10th to leapfrog the frustrated Giants and select DeVonta Smith. The Lions made a similar move from 32nd up to 12th to get Jameson Williams a year later, rather than waiting for a Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks or Christian Watson later on.

Moving In/Out of the Late First

This is the range of the first round where you can expect the phones to start ringing off the hook. Over the last five years, 46 percent of the final 10 picks in each draft have been traded at least once. In 2024, those last 10 slots exchanged hands a total of nine times by the end of Day 1. And they're particularly characterized by teams sliding up into the first round to unlock the fifth-year option on rookie contracts and, on the other side, teams moving out of the first to pick up extra capital. Last year, the Giants and Texans personified this archetype with New York's move from the early second to No. 25 overall for QB Jaxson Dart. And we may never forget Baltimore's last-second move into the last pick of the 2018 first round for Lamar Jackson.

Swapping Pick for Player

This is a slightly rarer occurrence, but it does still happen from time to time. And I'm not talking about massive, multi-first packages for a quarterback here. I am talking about the 2022 wide receiver fiesta, when the Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles for the 18th-overall pick, the Cardinals traded Marquise Brown to the Ravens for the 23rd, the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders for the 22nd and the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for the 29th (all with bits of additional compensation). There are a couple of wide receivers reportedly on the trade block heading into this year's draft … perhaps we'll see another flurry of mid-first moves.

2026 First-Round Trade Projections

We've tracked the history, collected the data and outlined the trends -- now it's time for a little fun. Here are a handful of potential trades for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, based on the blueprints we've identified above.

Chiefs trade up for elite edge rusher

Chiefs receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 3)
• 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 104)

Cardinals receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 9)
• 2026 first-round pick (No. 29)

The Chiefs need an impactful defensive force and have unusually lucrative capital in this year's first round. The Cardinals have a litany of holes to fill and are realistically on the first rung of a sizable rebuild ladder. Brett Veach continues to be aggressive in the draft and lands the top available pass rusher at third overall -- either David Bailey or Arvell Reese, depending on what the Jets do at No. 2 -- while Arizona stocks up on Day 1 picks.

Jets jump Cowboys for CB Jermod McCoy

Jets receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 11)

Dolphins receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 16)
• 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 103)
• 2027 fourth-round pick

NFL IQ has identified the Cowboys as the most likely landing spot for Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy -- as have Daniel Jeremiah and Rhett Lewis, among others -- but new Jets GM Darren Mougey knows that as well. After trading Sauce Gardner to the Colts in November, New York uses one of the picks they received in return to move up ahead of Dallas and steal the second corner off the board.

Ravens trade first-rounder for George Pickens

Ravens receive:

• WR George Pickens

Cowboys receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 14 overall)
• 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 115 overall)

After an exceptional 2025 season, the Cowboys franchise tagged George Pickens and have until July 15 to reach a long-term deal. However, if Pickens expects more than Jerry Jones and Co. are willing to pay, it's possible the team could move him for a far better return than they sent to acquire him last May. Something like … the 14th-overall pick? From a Ravens franchise that always seems one piece away from a run and needs a true No. 1 receiver? If negotiations stall in Dallas, this could be a win-win-win for everyone involved.

Bills jump Browns for WR Omar Cooper Jr.

Bills receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 23)

Eagles receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 26 overall)
• 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 126 overall)

I had the Bills in my list of six teams that could trade for A.J. Brown, citing the upside of Joe Brady and Josh Allen's offense if they could pair DJ Moore with another excellent wideout. But if Philly remains stingy on the AJB front -- particularly until the money frees up in June -- they could still play a part in Buffalo's search for a receiver. In this theoretical, ever-active Philly GM Howie Roseman slides back a few slots, picks up an early Day 3 pick, and allows Brandon Beane and Co. to hop the receiver-hungry Browns for Indiana's Omar Cooper Jr.

Cardinals trade into first for QB Ty Simpson

Cardinals receive:

• 2026 first-round pick (No. 28)

Texans receive:

• 2026 second-round pick (No. 34)
• 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 104)
• 2027 third-round pick

How likely are the Texans to slide down from the late 20s to pick No. 34 so a rebuilding team can snag a potential franchise quarterback in the first round? Well … they did it last year (with the Giants and Jaxson Dart). They could absolutely do it again in 2026, as Arizona follows our archetypical blueprint to land Alabama QB Ty Simpson as the new face of their franchise (hopefully).