Nearly one month ago, I provided the first version of my Hot 100 list of the top prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. With Day 1 now just around the corner, and with several prospects working out at their pro days in the interim, I've updated my ranking below.
Before we dig into the names, a couple of notes:
1) As I did in version 1.0, I've provided bite-sized nuggets of information about the top 50 players, including new blurbs for the biggest movers -- anyone who jumped 10-plus spots, up or down -- and new entrants to the upper half of the list. To keep things neat, players who fell out of the top 50 did not keep their blurbs.
2) The unorthodox nature of this draft-prep season, with prospects working out only at their pro days and not testing at the NFL Scouting Combine, made for a complex evaluation process. Thus, you will see some swings below that might seem wilder than they really are.
3) I tended to not consider players for this list if injury concerns make it difficult to form a fair or complete assessment of them at the moment.
Height: 6-foot-5 1/2. Weight: 213 pounds.
Lawrence was a winner in high school, capturing two state championships in Georgia. He was a winner in college, securing a title in his freshman season at Clemson. And I think he'll be a good NFL quarterback.
Height: 6-6. Weight: 240.
Pitts will be a mismatch problem for anybody who plays against him. He's got great speed, and he can play inside or outside. Don't just think of him as a tight end -- he can also effectively function as a wide receiver.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 200.
Chase is a better prospect than his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson was heading into the 2020 NFL Draft -- and Jefferson made a run at Offensive Rookie of the Year, with 88 catches for 1,400 yards and seven TDs, after being picked 22nd overall by the Vikings.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 200.
Wilson had a great year. He's very athletic, he's an excellent long-ball thrower and he's smart. I think he'll be the kind of quarterback who can take you to the playoffs.
Height: 6-5 1/2. Weight: 320.
Sewell is the closest thing to Hall of Famer Jonathan Ogden I've seen in some time. More so than anything, he can play left tackle, and that means so much in today's NFL.
Height: 5-9 1/2. Weight: 180.
Waddle had a midseason injury (broken ankle) that forced him to miss six games. That said, he has speed and quickness and is a very good return specialist.
Height: 6-1/4. Weight: 170.
The Heisman Trophy-winning Smith has excellent hands and is very quick. He reminds you a lot of Hall of Famer Lance Alworth.
Height: 6-2 1/4. Weight: 225.
Fields has impressed with his pre-draft performances, and I think he's a lot better than we think he is. His move down here was precipitated by Waddle and Smith leapfrogging him and does not necessarily reflect my thoughts on him as a prospect.
Height: 6-4. Weight: 320.
Vera-Tucker can start at guard or left tackle and has lots of upside for the future.
Height: 6-4 1/8. Weight: 305.
Slater had a great workout at Northwestern's pro day, recording a 33-inch vertical and throwing the bar up 33 times. His arms, which people were worried about the length of, measured 33 inches. Ultimately, I think he's more of a guard than a tackle.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 203.
Surtain, whose father, Patrick, enjoyed a long NFL career, has very good coverage skills and is a smart player.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 265.
The UCLA transfer boasts good pass-rush ability. He just needs to stay healthy.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 225.
Lance is a strong thrower but not a particularly good scrambler, given his average speed. That said, he's been very successful -- he just has "it." He's something special.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 240.
Currently in line to be the first linebacker drafted, Parsons should play many years at a high level.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 205.
The son of NFL great Joe Horn, Jaycee Horn has outstanding quickness. Though he only logged two interceptions in 2020, he does leave South Carolina with 23 career pass breakups.
Height: 6-1 1/2. Weight: 210.
Farley overcame early injuries in his career to become a top cornerback, recording six picks and 19 passes defensed in 2018-19. I'm not moving Farley much despite his recent back procedure. There are different opinions about him from a medical standpoint, but if he can stay healthy, he's a really good player.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 315.
Darrisaw, who started as a true freshman, is a very, very good run-blocker.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 275.
I graded Paye as an inside player rather than an edge player, and he had a great workout -- 4.52-second 40-yard dash, 35.5-inch vertical jump, 9-foot-10 broad jump -- for an inside player at Michigan's pro day.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 250.
Oweh dazzled with an unofficial 4.36 40 at Penn State's pro day, and I think he'll be the biggest surprise of the 2021 regular season. He didn't have any sacks in 2020, but he did post seven in 2018-19, and he finished 2020 with 38 tackles, including 6.5 for loss. I think we'll see his pass-rush ability translate into plenty of sacks in his rookie campaign.
Height: 6-7. Weight: 260.
Rousseau has the potential and traits to be quite good, but he's been inconsistent in his play. He posted 15.5 sacks in 2019, which ended up being his only season of significant college production, because of an injury in 2018 and his decision to opt out in 2020.
Height: 6-6 1/2. Weight: 320.
A three-year starter who split his time over the past three seasons between left tackle and right tackle, Jenkins has long arms and is a good athlete -- and he's a better football player than Russell Okung was when he played at Oklahoma State.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 217.
Jones is one of the biggest question marks in the draft to me. He played well in 2020 for Alabama. An average athlete, Jones boasts great intangibles.
Height: 6-6. Weight: 326.
Some people don't value centers as highly as others, but anytime a guy can start multiple years at a high level in college, I think he's pretty good -- for me, that overpowers concerns about Dickerson's health as he recovers from a knee injury suffered late in the 2020 season.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 250.
Ojulari can be a very good pass rusher despite the lack of size for his position.
Height: 5-11. Weight: 195.
Toney's one-game suspension in 2018 is outweighed by his talent. He's a special player with the ability to make big plays.
Height: 5-9. Weight: 185.
Moore ran a lot better than I expected him to, reportedly clocking a 4.32 40 at Mississippi's pro day, and is a much better player than I thought he was at first.
Height: 6-0. Weight: 188.
After thinking more about Newsome's 4.38 40, which was faster than anybody expected, I decided to move him up.
Height: 5-7. Weight: 180.
Moore is a great athlete, as evidenced by his pro-day performance (4.31 40, 42.5-inch vertical jump, 10-6 broad jump, 4.1 short shuttle and 6.68 three-cone). Though he didn't do much in 2020, Moore has the speed and skills to break out in the NFL -- and I'm counting on him breaking out.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 255.
Tryon didn't play in 2020, but he had a great pro day, running really well in the 40 (4.64), and I think he could be a good pass rusher.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 260.
Collins is a good player; my concern is that I just don't know where on the field he'll play in the NFL. The level of competition he faced at Tulsa, compared to what he would have gone up against in a conference like the Big 12 or Big Ten, also complicates the evaluation here.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 290.
The Dallas product is very strong and athletic -- an exceptional run-stuffer.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 235.
Harris -- who stayed at Alabama for a fourth year -- is a great pass-catcher (70 receptions for 729 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons) with above-average running skills.
Height: 6-2 1/8. Weight: 200.
My concern regarding Joseph, who transferred to Kentucky in 2019, stems from the way he exited LSU, after being suspended for a bowl game at the end of his freshman season. Setting that aside, he's a pretty good player.
Height: 6-1 1/2. Weight: 210.
Moehrig is a solid player, but after further consideration, to my eye, he doesn't quite pop the way you'd want someone in the top 20 to pop.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 315.
Barmore is going to be a dangerous threat as a defensive tackle. His drop here has more to do with player movement around him than anything.
Height: 5-10 1/8. Weight: 212.
The three-year starter has excellent hands catching the ball coming out of the backfield (85 catches for 1,020 receiving yards and six TDs over the past two seasons) and good vision as a runner.
Height: 6-3 1/2. Weight: 230.
Davis is an amazing player -- why he didn't start until his senior year, I don't know. At Kentucky's pro day, he logged a 4.49 40, a 42-inch vertical and an 11-foot broad jump.
Height: 6-3 3/8. Weight: 281.
Basham has pass-rush ability and is a good, steady player.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 193.
I dropped Campbell because his ball skills are lacking -- he has a hard time finding the ball. He's got everything but that.
Height: 5-11 1/2. Weight: 220.
Williams is an excellent runner with great balance and explosion -- and he can also catch the ball (50 receptions in his college career).
Height: 6-2. Weight: 235.
I might have had Werner a bit too high. Still, as I wrote last time, he can play against the run or in space -- and there's a possibility he could be fast enough to serve as a safety.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 210.
My previous ranking of Bateman was based on an assumption that he'd run a relatively slow 40. Instead, he ran much faster -- a 4.39 40 -- than anybody expected, and thus soars upward here.
Height: 6-5 7/8. Weight: 308.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 310.
Myers is a two-position player who I think can start for the next eight or nine years.
Height: 6-5 1/8. Weight: 312.
Leatherwood, who started for three years on the offensive line, can play two different positions, having spent time at both right guard and left tackle.
Height: 5-11 5/8. Weight: 200.
Grant has the great ball skills needed to play the position. In his four seasons of action, he logged 10 picks, 17 passes defensed and five forced fumbles.
Height: 6-5 5/8. Weight: 305.
A three-year starter at left tackle, Radunz's long arms help him in pass protection.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 205.
Marshall (10-plus TDs in each of the past two seasons, 4.38 40 at LSU's pro day) is just a better player than I thought he was and deserves to be in this spot.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 330.
As a three-year starter on a very good football team, Humphrey will start and play for a long time in the NFL.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 320.
Mayfield's pedigree as a strong contributor in a good program is encouraging.
Height: 6-0. Weight: 215.
Bolton is a good player vs. the run, though he's limited against the passing game.
Height: 6-0. Weight: 215.
Height: 6-2 5/8. Weight: 212.
Height: 5-11 1/2. Weight: 190.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 255.
Height: 6-3 5/8. Weight: 255.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 253.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 190.
Height: 6-7. Weight: 320.
Height: 6-6. Weight: 300.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 308.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 360.
Height: 6-5 1/2. Weight: 311.
Height: 5-9. Weight: 202.
Height: 5-10. Weight: 190.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 200.
Height: 5-10. Weight: 180.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 282.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 193.
Height: 6-5. Weight: 336.
Height: 6-5 1/2. Weight: 305.
Height: 6-1 1/2. Weight: 227.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 320.
Height: 6-5 1/2. Weight: 331.
Height: 6-2 1/2. Weight: 305.
Height: 5-8 1/4. Weight: 160.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 228.
Height: 6-0 1/2. Weight: 190.
Height: 6-6. Weight: 310.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 193.
Height: 6-4. Weight: 303.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 284.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 315.
Height: 5-11. Weight: 187.
Height: 5-11 1/2. Weight: 197.
Height: 6-2. Weight: 300.
Height: 6-4. Weight: 315.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 247.
Height: 6-3 1/2. Weight: 245.
Height: 5-9. Weight: 190.
Height: 6-6 3/4. Weight: 354.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 241.
Height: 6-8. Weight: 307.
Height: 6-5 3/8. Weight: 339.
Height: 6-4 1/2. Weight: 264.
Height: 5-11. Weight: 195.
Height: 6-1. Weight: 230.
Height: 6-4. Weight: 265.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 345.
Height: 6-3. Weight: 226.
DROPPED OUT: Tre' McKitty, TE, Georgia (was at No. 68); Jordan Smith, EDGE, UAB (72); Hunter Long, TE, Boston College (75); Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State (81); Marlon Tuipulotu, DT, USC (87); Kyle Trask, QB, Florida (92); Seth Williams, WR, Auburn (95); Tony Fields II, LB, West Virginia (99); Mike Strachan, WR, Charleston (100).
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