- WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- WHEN: 1 p.m. ET Sunday | CBS, Paramount+, NFL+
The Buffalo Bills have made the postseason for six straight years. The Denver Broncos qualified for the playoffs for the first time since Peyton Manning led them to a victory in Super Bowl 50.
The Bills might be considered big favorites at Highmark Stadium, but the young, hungry Broncos come in with little to lose and everything to gain.
Bo Nix is among the leading Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates after accounting for 33 touchdowns -- 29 passing and four rushing -- for a vastly improved Denver offense. The defense has also done its job, ranking in the top three in yards per play allowed, sack percentage and red-zone efficiency.
Buffalo counters with MVP candidate Josh Allen , who leads an offense that rang up 30 passing TDs and 32 rushing scores -- the first “30-30” team in league history. James Cook led the way with 18 of those touchdowns, but the Bills are an extremely balanced team, with 11 players having at least 267 yards from scrimmage.
The Broncos surprisingly owned the seventh-best point differential in the NFL this season (plus-114). The Bills were tied for third, at plus-157.
The Bills are one of two teams undefeated at home this season, along with the Chiefs, bringing their regular-season record in Buffalo to 15-1 over the past two seasons. The one team to beat the Bills there during that run? Denver in Week 10 last year, upsetting Buffalo on a game-winning field goal as time expired. (The Bills also lost at home to the Chiefs in last year’s playoffs.)
The Broncos have struggled on the road this season, going 4-5. They lost four of their last five games away from Denver down the stretch, only beating the Raiders in that span.
The two former AFL founding franchises have been old rivals back to the early 1960s, but they’ve only met once prior in the postseason -- the 1991 AFC Championship Game, featuring a battle of Hall of Fame QBs John Elway and Jim Kelly. That one was famous for Carlton Bailey’s pick-six of Elway being the only Buffalo touchdown in a 10-7 defensive battle that vaulted the Bills to Super Bowl XXVI.
Here are three things to watch for when the Broncos visit the Bills in Sunday's wild-card game:
1) Josh Allen must handle Denver’s pressure packages. The Broncos, led by coordinator Vance Joseph, are a high-blitz defense, sending extra rushers on 37.3% of opponents’ dropbacks, which was the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season. That led to a league-high 63 sacks, which were nine more than any other club. What makes them so tough to block is that they can rush from the outside with Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks) and Jonathon Cooper (10.5) and also generate interior pressure with Zach Allen (8.5) and John Franklin-Myers (seven). Bonitto and Allen have been banged up, but both should be fine for this game.
Josh Allen has been excellent against the blitz this season, with 16 TD passes and only one interception, as well as a 123.2 passer rating, per Next Gen Stats. He’s averaging a career-low 8.3 air yards per attempt this season, but that means Allen is getting the ball out underneath quicker and more efficiently than in years past.
Allen’s Bills are 0-2 when facing Joseph, both in last year’s meeting with the Broncos and in 2020 when Joseph was with the Arizona Cardinals. In those games, Allen has averaged only 6.1 yards per attempt and has only three TD passes to four picks. Interestingly, all four of those interceptions came when Joseph’s defenses weren’t blitzing.
If Denver can get pressure bringing four rushers, it will have a lot easier time slowing the Bills down. However, Buffalo’s pass protection has been elite this season, allowing only 15 sacks -- and most of those came in the first half of the season. Since the Colts sacked Allen twice in Week 10, he’s only been sacked once in the following seven games.
2) Can Bo Nix stand tall in a tough environment? Nix has been poised for a rookie quarterback, generally avoiding sacks and turnovers most games and operating Sean Payton’s offense very efficiently. Nix’s confidence has grown steadily, too, more aggressively targeting downfield shots as the season has worn on.
Yet history suggests this will be a tough assignment Sunday. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 in the postseason on the road since 2015, and Bills head coach Sean McDermott has been especially tough on first-year passers, going 9-4 against them while allowing averages of 14.6 points and 269.4 total yards.
The Bills don’t feature the pass-rush firepower that Denver does, but Gregory Rousseau has been a steady pressure source. They’ve also received more help lately from A.J. Epenesa and Von Miller, facing his former team for the second time ever.
Nix’s picks and sacks have often come in bunches this season, and there appears to be a correlation. He threw one or more interception in seven games this season (four games with two or more), taking 13 sacks in those games. In Nix’s 10 games with no interceptions, he was only sacked 11 times.
The Broncos and Nix must prioritize ball security above all else. The Bills were plus-24 in turnovers this season, generating 32 takeaways to only eight offensive turnovers. The last thing Denver wants is to give the Bills extra possessions and more opportunities to score.
Then again, Buffalo’s defense has been far different against the league’s best teams versus those lower on the food chain. In their five regular-season meetings against playoff teams, the Bills went 2-3 and allowed averages of 33 points, 417.8 yards and a 90% red-zone scoring rate. In 12 games versus non-playoff teams, Buffalo was 11-1 and those numbers dropped to 16.9 points per game, 309.8 yards per game and 41.5% red-zone efficiency.
3) Which non-QBs could be X-factors? The Broncos and Bills both feature balanced offenses, with a number of skill-position players on each team capable of being heroes Sunday.
Denver has a clear No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, who had his first 1,000-yard season since 2019 and led the team in TD receptions with eight. No other Broncos receiver had even half as many receiving yards as Sutton’s 1,081. But their rushing attack has been a balanced, three-headed approach, with Nix also chipping in as a runner.
Buffalo is virtually the inverse, with Cook the main weapon in the backfield -- with decent contributions from Ray Davis and Ty Johnson -- and a more balanced group of pass catchers. Khalil Shakir leads the team in catches and yards as a consistent slot threat. But on any given day, several other Bills receivers can be Allen’s go-to guy.
Amari Cooper, who has been hot and cold since being traded to Buffalo, has missed time dealing with a personal matter but is expected back for this game. Wide receiver Keon Coleman has been hot and cold as a rookie but gives the Bills a physical, big-play threat alongside Mack Hollins, who led the team with five TD catches. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox also are capable of being big factors.
But Denver’s defense is a tough nut to crack. Who Patrick Surtain II matches up with could depend on whether Cooper plays, but he’s as stingy as any DB in the league. The Broncos’ pass rush helps a lot, but look for the Bills to try to attack matchups against the other DBs: Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Levi Wallace and Kris Abrams-Draine.
The Bills don’t have a Surtain on defense, but CBs Taron Johnson, Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford all are capable cover men. McDermott plays a lot of zone defense, but Douglas was the one who most often covered Sutton when the teams faced in 2023. The Bills are also in better shape -- coverage-wise and versus the run -- with LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard back in the lineup, giving them more flexibility up front.
Each team also features return aces. Marvin Mims Jr. has seen his role on offense grow significantly in the second half of the season, but he’s also a difference maker on punt and kickoff returns. Buffalo’s Brandon Codrington also has been a hidden factor for Buffalo as a punt and kickoff returner, but a hamstring injury leaves his availability in question.
