Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. In today's installment, he weighs which new coaches are best positioned to start their tenures with a bang ...
Last year at this time, DeMeco Ryans was a rookie head coach barreling toward his initial season running a Texans franchise that won 11 combined games over the previous three years, with an untested QB (C.J. Stroud) heading an overhauled roster. So Houston's ultimate triumph as AFC South champion might have seemed like a shock. But believe it or not, Ryans' hot start continued a trend that has been ongoing for several seasons.
Consider that in six of the past seven years (2021 being the exception), at least one coach has won a division title in Year 1:
2023: Ryans, Houston Texans
2022: Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings; Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
2020: Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
2019: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
2018: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
2017: Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills; Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
This offseason, eight teams hired new head coaches. Which one is most likely to follow in Ryans' footsteps and claim a division title in Year 1? Let's rank 'em!
Last season, the 7-10 Falcons were a quarterback away from swiping the NFC South -- so the addition this offseason of Kirk Cousins (with rookie Michael Penix Jr. cast as a high-upside backup) could put the Dirty Birds in position to claim the crown in 2024. Cousins is a prolific veteran passer with seven 4,000-yard seasons on his resume. Presuming he returns to form following last season's Achilles injury, he should jump-start the offense, given the firepower the Falcons have on the perimeter, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney and Bijan Robinson. Cousins could put up big numbers as a pass-first point guard streaking down the floor on a fast break. If Morris and new coordinator Jimmy Lake can add some spice to the defense, Atlanta could soar to the top of a wide-open division.
The defensive wizard takes over a Seattle squad with enough talent to vault to the top of the NFC West. From a dynamic offense sparked by a potent trio on the perimeter (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) to a defense loaded with blue-chip playmakers at every level, the Seahawks should continue their winning ways under a coach intent on maximizing the talents of his best players. Macdonald's "military mindset" (as Leonard Williams called it) appears to mark a break from the approach taken by his predecessor, Pete Carroll. The Seahawks have been competitive over the past two seasons, posting consecutive winning records. Perhaps they will respond to an edgier leader with a creative playbook by transforming into a juggernaut in the NFC.
If Jayden Daniels performs like the hype bunny who has been touted as the frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the Commanders could leap to the front of the NFC East, with Quinn encouraging this veteran-laden group to play complementary football. New Commanders Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong, who all played for Quinn at previous NFL stops, have vouched for the energetic head coach as a culture builder. With a collection of players willing to hold their teammates accountable, Quinn can set a new standard for the franchise. Washington seems to be flying under the radar despite the presence of productive veterans at several marquee positions (including receiver Terry McLaurin, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler). If the Commanders are able to knock off some NFC heavyweights, they could emerge as the league's biggest surprise by the season's end.
Harbaugh inherited a talented but underachieving Chargers squad that has failed to maximize its potential. A mass exodus of blue-chip playmakers this offseason, including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, has led to questions about this team's ability to go toe-to-toe with the NFL's heavyweights, particularly the Chiefs, who have won the AFC West eight straight times. But Harbaugh clearly has a blueprint for constructing championship-caliber teams, based on the remarkable turnarounds he pulled off at each of his previous coaching stops (University of San Diego, Stanford, San Francisco 49ers, Michigan). He's a rebuilding specialist who knows how to whip teams into shape utilizing an old-school approach that emphasizes physicality, toughness and discipline. Kansas City looms large within the division. That said, Harbaugh's throwback approach could bully opponents, with the Chargers' running game, defense and superstar signal-caller leading the way. (Although the sooner QB Justin Herbert shakes the plantar fascia injury that has slowed him in camp, the better.)
The vibes around Las Vegas have changed since Pierce became the interim head coach last season. The former Pro Bowler, who earned the full-time gig in January, has pumped life into the Raiders by demanding more effort, toughness and physicality from a squad that preferred finesse over force under its previous head coach. Whether by running the ball between the tackles or crushing opponents with a ferocious defensive front line built to bully foes into submission, the Raiders are turning back the clock to rediscover their winning ways. Whoever wins the preseason competition between Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew will have to provide steady QB play. And, as is true of the Chargers, the Chiefs stand in the Raiders' way in the AFC West. But we can't forget about Pierce's "Mahomes rules," which helped the Silver and Black knock off Kansas City down the stretch last season. Given an entire offseason to further refine a formula that could work against the rest of the heavyweights in the AFC, the Raiders could sneak into the playoffs as an unlikely division winner.
Last season, Tennessee registered double-digit losses for the second consecutive year, while the other three teams in the AFC South each posted winning records. Credit Titans general manager Ran Carthon for assembling a veteran-laden roster dotted with former blue-chippers on each side of the ball around second-year pro Will Levis at QB. Callahan will need to earn the trust of his team with his knowledge and expertise, but the Titans could lean on the vets' savvy, experience and wisdom to knock off the talented up-and-comers within their division. Surrounded by a five-star coaching staff with championship pedigrees and exceptional instructional skills, Callahan has a chance to quickly master the art of winning games, relying on a village of veteran players and coaches to help him put together a strong Year 1.
It is hard to replace a legend, but Mayo -- a lifelong Patriot who earned a Super Bowl ring, multiple Pro Bowl nods and Defensive Rookie of the Year honors with the franchise -- might be the perfect man for the job. The first-time head coach must maintain the lofty defensive standards set under Bill Belichick while upgrading a pedestrian offense lacking established perimeter playmakers. There is a chance that rookie QB Drake Maye could bring a jolt of energy to the program, whenever he makes it on the field. Even so, Mayo will need to push all the right buttons as a game manager for his team to compete at the top of the AFC East.
In previous coaching stops in Tampa and Seattle, Canales helped resurrect the careers of QBs Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. Now Canales gets a chance to help former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young bounce back from a disappointing rookie campaign in Carolina. In addition to regaining Young's swagger, Canales and the QB must find ways to invigorate an offense that added some playmakers with big-play potential. Few observers are expecting a quick turnaround in Charlotte. Still, Canales could set the foundation for a franchise revival by helping Young find his way in Year 2.
