Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, scheme and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this season's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to home in on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2022 campaign, ordered from most to least wins, with playoff berths noted.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 5.
Ceiling: 13.2
Floor: 8.8
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
Back-to-back league MVP Aaron Rodgers eclipses 4,000 passing yards in 57.7 percent of simulations. The Packers ranked just 28th in red-zone defense last season, but they figure to experience a dramatic improvement in 2022, especially with a return to full health from Jaire Alexander. Green Bay's star cornerback boasts the third-highest forecasted win share at the position (1.64 wins).
Ceiling: 12.5
Floor: 8.4
FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Mike Evans projects to be the league leader in receiving touchdowns, with the most likely total being 13. At 45 years old, Tom Brady earns over 4,500 passing yards in 54.0 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 11.7
Floor: 7.6
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
Cooper Kupp projects to lead the league in catches at 111. The reigning receiving triple-crown winner tops 1,275 receiving yards in 53.8 percent of projections.
Ceiling: 11.2
Floor: 7.5
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Jalen Hurts connects with his receivers for at least 23 passing touchdowns in 58.2 percent of simulations, which is a very, very high level of confidence.
Ceiling: 10.9
Floor: 7.0
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
CeeDee Lamb's season projection: 98 receptions for 1,294 yards and nine TDs. He tops 88 receptions in 53.8 percent of simulations and 1,150 receiving yards in 52.9 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 11.1
Floor: 6.5
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Nick Bosa projects to lead the NFL in sacks with 15 -- which sounds like a low league-leading number, but remember all probabilities factor in the chance that something doesn't happen, as well, meaning you need to pay more attention to the ranking relative to peers. The Niners have one of the largest ceiling-to-floor differences due to the uncertainty at the quarterback position. Deebo Samuel earns at least 1,200 scrimmage yards in 52.1 percent of simulations, with at least 925 coming through the air in 55.4 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 9.9
Floor: 6.5
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Justin Jefferson forecasts to pace the NFL with 1,450 receiving yards, coming off 111 receptions. Jefferson has 97 catches on targets of 10-plus air yards since 2020 -- by Next Gen Stats' count, that's 24 more than any other player. Last season alone, Jefferson earned 1,255 yards on such passes, leading the league.
Ceiling: 9.9
Floor: 6.3
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Kyler Murray passes for more than 4,200 yards in 53 percent of simulations and at least 27 TDs in 52.7 percent of simulations. He also rushes for more than 500 yards in 53.8 percent of simulations, topping 600 51.3 percent of the time.
Ceiling: 9.4
Floor: 6.0
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
My models forecast the Saints’ defense to allow the third-fewest points in the NFL this season. Alvin Kamara tops 1,500 scrimmage yards in 52.6 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 9.2
Floor: 6.2
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Terry McLaurin earns more than 1,000 receiving yards in 54.4 percent of simulations and at least 1,100 yards 52 percent of the time, with his most likely TD number being seven. This makes him WR15 -- with upside -- in my fantasy model.
Ceiling: 7.1
Floor: 4.7
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
My models project a strong Defensive Rookie of the Year case for the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson, who earns seven-plus sacks in 53.6 percent of simulations. Fun side note: The past three DROY winners came from the Big Ten (Micah Parsons, Penn State; Chase Young, Ohio State; Nick Bosa, Ohio State).
Ceiling: 8.1
Floor: 5.8
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Saquon Barkley earns at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in 53.6 percent of simulations, with his most likely rushing touchdown total being six.
Ceiling: 7.5
Floor: 4.9
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Christian McCaffrey tops 1,600 scrimmage yards in 56.2 percent of simulations, with at least 7.5 rushing touchdowns 54.1 percent of the time. Run CMC has a strong case for being the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts, but owners clearly need him to stay healthy after he played in just 10 total games over the past two seasons.
Ceiling: 7.0
Floor: 4.2
FanDuel over/under: 5.5
Justin Fields tops 500 rushing yards in 55.2 percent of simulations and passes for more than 3,500 yards in 55.1 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 6.8
Floor: 4.4
FanDuel over/under: 5.5
Seahawks RB Rashad Penny has averaged 134.7 rushing yards when he’s received at least 12 carries in a game, with an average of 7.7 yards per carry in those seven games. Last season, he led the NFL with 6.3 yards per carry, the third most by a running back in a single season in the Super Bowl era (min. 100 attempts). With rookie Kenneth Walker III, who ranked second in the FBS with 1,636 rushing yards last season at Michigan State, joining the team after being drafted in Round 2, the run game should be a source of strength for Seattle.
Ceiling: 6.7
Floor: 4.2
FanDuel over/under: 4.5
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts has a good chance of making history in 2022. He tops 1,000 yards in 58.2 percent of simulations and would be the first tight end in league history to post 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. That figure (58.2%) is a very strong preseason forecast! Pitts needs 955 yards to break Mike Ditka’s record for the most receiving yards by a tight end in his first two seasons. Also, just 10 tight ends have recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons all time.
Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter.
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